What happened to iron ore yesterday when "double dip" fell?
發(fā)布時(shí)間:[2019-8-22 9:6:10] 瀏覽量:1804次
Black commodities futures weakened on Wednesday as the main contract for iron ore futures fell below the 600-yuan round mark. Iron ore futures fell 4.3 per cent to close Wednesday afternoon, sharply increasing their positions. The I1909 contract reduced 16,000 hands to 710.5.5, and the I2001 contract increased 234,406 hands to 589.5.
The reporter found that iron ore fell sharply after entering August. The main contract in 2001 fell from 761.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 589.5 yuan/ton, and fell by 172 yuan/ton in 20 days, a decline of 22.59 %.
What on earth caused such a large drop in the short term?
Some industry sources pointed out that Wu'an steel focus companies to strengthen emergency control notice is one of the reasons for the sharp drop in iron ore futures. Although this news is good for the black line, it is good for spiral steel and Coke, but it is good for empty iron ore. According to the notice, on August 22 to August 31, steel companies implemented emergency shutdown control measures on the basis of strict implementation of previous control measures. All enterprise sintering machines were discontinued. In addition to retaining a normal production, the rest of the companies purchased a pot or furnace. Emergency shutdown control; Coking enterprises, out of focus time extended to more than 36 hours. The production limit involved a total of 4 steel companies, and 9 blast furnaces limited production, affecting iron and water production of about 180,000 tons. In addition, the elimination of backward and excess production capacity supervision and inspection mobilization and training meeting will be held soon.
Guo Taijun An iron ore researcher Ma Liang told reporters that from the perspective of expectations, the supply of foreign mines resumed in the second half of the year, and the gap problem was fundamentally resolved. Iron ore rose more than 70 per cent in the first half of 2019, largely because of concerns about the gap between supply and demand. With the disclosure of the second quarter of the foreign mine, the supply of the four major mines in the second half of the year has recovered significantly. According to the average, the total supply of the four major mines has increased by 68.06 million tons over the first half of the year, far exceeding market expectations. Such a large increase also makes the iron ore gap problem that lasted for nearly half a year has been fundamentally solved.
The reporter found that from a realistic point of view, the supply and demand of iron ore began to show a clear shift in the middle and late July. Foreign shipments began to gradually recover in May and began to be reflected in Hong Kong in mid-to-late July. The steel mills have experienced a decline in iron ore demand due to the pressure of administrative and economic production reductions. Supply and demand have begun to weaken, and there is a more obvious reflection on the port inventory. Starting in April, the stock of iron ore ports has continued to decline at a rate of more than 2 million tons per week. Starting in mid-to-late July, the port inventory has rebounded. On August 16, the port inventory was 116 million tons, which was 1.87 million tons higher than the low point in early July..
"From the perspective of market mentality, after the peak of iron ore in mid-to-late July, there was a continuous and significant decline in August. Traders 'mentality gradually deteriorated and the rush was serious. Due to the rapid decline in iron ore and the large decline, traders 'losses have continued to expand, panic has intensified, and the phenomenon of lower prices and shipments has become serious, and the sheep effect has gradually formed, further amplifying the market's decline. " said Ma Liang.
The industry sources pointed out that steel mills profits are down, enthusiasm for production retention is also declining, multiple forms of production reduction, superimposed pre-National Day production limit expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the demand for iron ore weakened. In addition, during the four months from March 21 to July 21, 2019, Iranian iron powder production reached 15.9 million tons, an increase of 3 % year-on-year; During the three-month period from 21 March to 21 June, the year-on-year increase was 4 per cent. In terms of spot, Qingdao Port PB powder spot 700 yuan/ton transaction, Jinbu plate face 749 yuan/ton. Wu'an City issued a notice of production restrictions in late August, and on the eve of the National Day, steel mills in Hebei Province also had certain production restrictions. Iron ore demand may have a certain impact, and the arrival of high prices in late August, iron ore spot is still expected to be weak operation.
In terms of the current price of iron ore, there are also some investors began to "idling." The reason is that the production limit was less than expected and the output of the four major mines in the first half of the year was generally reduced, and resources remained generally tight during the year.
According to the expected output announced by the first three major mines, Vale reiterated that the sales guideline for iron ore and pellets is 307-332 million tons, and it is expected that Jiang's sales volume will be close to a median of 320 million tons, which will be reduced by 46 million tons from last year.; Rio Tinto's shipments were reduced by 13 million tons to 32-330 million tons; BHP announced that its production will decrease by about 6-8 million tons.
The second quarter report shows that BHP Billiton's target for iron ore in fiscal year 2020(July 2019 to June 2020) is 273-286 million tons, and in 2019 it was 270 million tons. In September this year, it plans to overhaul the port loading vehicle. Rio Tinto said that considering the maintenance of the main railways in the region in October and the impact of local weather, Rio Tinto adjusted its volume of iron ore guidance in the Pilbara region from the previous 3.33-343 billion tons to 32-330 million tons.
The total number of shipments from foreign mines has picked up, and most of the four major mining shipments have been concentrated in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will gradually recover. As of last week, the total number of shipments from the four largest mines was 644 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 42.39 million tons, or 6.18 %.
Agency statistics show that since late July, the iron ore port inventory has gradually increased. As of August 16, the stock of iron ore in 46 major ports in China was approximately 123.15 million tons, an increase of 8.15 million tons from the low of 115 million tons at the beginning of July. The current inventory is measured by the 70 million tons per month of pig iron production and the 90 % dependence of imported mines. Even if the port inventory is all valid, it is about 35 days for domestic steel mills to use it. If you consider some low-grade or unmarketable resources in the port, The overall port inventory is at a low level.
Mr Chenyan believes that 62 per cent of iron ore is worth about $70.9 a ton, far below the current spot price, measured at 590 yuan/ton. In addition, the arrival of iron ore gradually increased, but the tense situation of iron ore supply and demand is difficult to ease.
For the post-market, Ma Liang believes that after experiencing a series of sharp declines, the market's pessimistic expectations of the future of iron ore have been fully reflected. Considering that the current long-process steel mills still have a profit of 100-300 yuan/ton, and the iron ore contract for the month of 2005 has approached 63 US dollars, the space to continue downward in the later period may be limited.
