Economic Watch: China's economic policy will remain solid after a good start
發(fā)布時間:[2019-5-5 10:42:42] 瀏覽量:5284次
Against the backdrop of the "six stability" policy and counter-cyclical policy, China's economy performed better than expected in the first quarter of this year and made a good start. But there are also concerns: does stabilising the economy mean that "policy tops" have been reached and that previously expected measures to stabilise growth will be suspended?
In the face of downward pressure, since the end of last year, China has made steady growth in many fields, implemented a series of policies and red envelopes, improved market expectations, and provided support for economic stability.
On the one hand, a larger and stronger tax and fee reduction policy has been introduced, which has helped enterprises reduce their burdens and encouraged them to increase investment and production. According to the ministry of finance, the value added tax reform, which began on April 1 this year, will reduce tax cuts by more than one trillion yuan(RMB, the same below).
On the other hand, the financial sector has increased its support to the real economy, and central banks and other departments have focused on creating a monetary and financial environment that is conducive to reducing the financing costs of small and micro enterprises. Guantao, a senior researcher at the 40 People's Forum on Chinese Finance, pointed out that the scale of new renminbi loans and social financing in China hit a record high in the first quarter, reflecting the positive results of the counter-cyclical adjustment of previous monetary policies.
The direct impact of frequent wind blowing on the policy surface is the recovery of market confidence. In March and April, China's manufacturing PMI returned to its expansion range after falling below the Zoom line for three consecutive months. It is worth noting that PMI reached a six-month high in April, indicating that a series of recent targeted and effective tax cuts and policy measures to support the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises have gradually become effective.
As for whether the economic recovery will lead to a weakening of the steady growth of policies in the future, Maoshengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, responded that the positive factors in China's economic performance are gradually increasing, and market expectations are obviously improving. "The next step will be many policies. Will be more effective and effective. The foundation for the smooth operation of the economy will continue to consolidate. "
As it says, a series of policies previously promised by the government are coming to an end. In particular, government revenue continues to be "subtracted" in exchange for the "addition" of corporate benefits and the "multiplication" of market vitality. From May 1, China will cut Social Security rates as scheduled. The Ministry of People and Social Affairs estimates that in 2019, the burden of corporate old-age insurance, unemployment insurance, and industrial injury insurance contributions will drop by more than 300 billion yuan, which is more than 60 % larger than the 2018 social security fee reduction scale.
For the much-watched monetary policy, as economic data improve, the market has the view that policy will tighten the margins and turn.
For lianping, the bank's chief economist, it is too early to turn to tightening. He pointed out that given the current economic performance and some positive changes in Jinrongshichang, the need for further easing of monetary policy is not necessary, but it has not turned to tightening. In the short term, policy will still adhere to countercyclical adjustment. Maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity remains the main goal.
It is also easy to see from the official information released recently that the monetary policy orientation has not changed. Liu guoqiang, deputy governor of the people's Bank of China, recently publicly responded that monetary policy at this stage is prudent, operating methods are camera selection, pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, and the operating goal is to relax moderately. "So central banks have no intention of tightening monetary policy or easing it. "
In addition, as the only way for the sustained development of the Chinese economy, the expansion of opening to the outside world is also being firmly implemented. At the recently concluded Second Belt and Road Forum on International Cooperation, China announced a series of major reform and opening up measures. This includes expanding foreign capital market access, strengthening international cooperation in IPR protection, increasing imports of goods and services, implementing international macroeconomic policy coordination, and paying more attention to the implementation of the policy of opening up.
Needless to say, after a good start, China's economic performance this year still faces many difficulties and problems, and the internal and external environment remains complex. However, it is foreseeable that the authorities will continue to maintain their capacity in the formulation and implementation of economic policies and create an enabling environment for meeting the challenges.
